# Dice Theory – Witch Aelves VS Deamonettes

Here we can see maths theory taken into an expanded example where we test out a battle situation using two different types of equipment on Witch Aelves for the purposes of seeing the variation in how they perform on the tabletop. Remember these tests are only guides to performance and are not guarantees of performance. They make some major assumptions in order to make the maths simpler and more easy to digest the results.

1) No auras, command abilities, spells or other effects are applied to either side. These are the bare bones basic abilities of each unit (Fanatical Faith Rolls for Witches are included as they are a constant through each turn).

2) The test assumes that all models from each unit make it into combat. This is not always realistic nor possible (esp in the early phases of combat when there are the most number of models). However it does give a general idea of who has the greater chance of winning in any round of evenly pitched combat.

### Witch Aelves with Duel Daggers

30 Witch Aelves VS 30 Deamonettes
Round 1

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(30-1))+5/6)*3 = 60.50
To Wound = 3/6*60.50 = 30.25
Deamonette saves = 2/6*30.25 = 10.08
Remaining Deamonettes 30-(30-10) = 10

Deamonettes
To hit = (2*10*3/6)+(((2*10*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 11.11
To Wound = 3/6*11.11 = 5.55
Witches Saves = =(5.56*1/6)+((5.56*5/6)*1/6) = 1.70
Remaining Witches 30-(6-2) = 26

Round 2
Witches
To hit =((4/6*(26-1))+5/6)*3 = 52.5
To Wound = 3/6*52.5 = 26.25
Deamonette saves = 2/6*26.25 = 8.75
Remaining Deamonettes 10-(26-9) = 0
30 Deamonettes VS 30 Witches
Round 1
Deamonettes
To hit = (2*30*3/6)+(((2*30*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 35
To Wound = 3/6*35 = 17.50
Witches Saves = =(17.50*1/6)+((17.50*5/6)*1/6) = 5.35
Remaining Witches 30-(18-5) = 17

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(17-1))+5/6)*3 = 34.5
To Wound = 3/6*34.5 = 17.25
Deamonette saves = 2/6*17.25 = 5.75
Remaining Deamonettes 30-(17-6) = 19

Round 2
Deamonettes
To hit = (2*19*3/6)+(((2*19*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 22.17
To Wound = 3/6*22.17 = 11.08
Witches Saves = =(11.08*1/6)+(11.08*5/6))*1/6) = 3.39
Remaining Witches 17-(11-3) = 9

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(9-1))+5/6)*3 = 18.5
To Wound = 3/6*18.5 = 9.25
Deamonette saves = 2/6*9.25 = 3.08
Remaining Deamonettes 19-(9-3) = 13

Round 3
Deamonettes
To hit = (2*13*3/6)+(((2*13*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 15.17
To Wound = 3/6*15.17 = 7.85
Witches Saves = =(7.85*1/6)+((7.85*5/6)*1/6) = 2.4
Remaining Witches 9-(8-2) = 3

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(3-1))+5/6)*3 = 6.5
To Wound = 3/6*6.5 = 3.25
Deamonette saves = 2/6*3.25 = 1.08
Remaining Deamonettes 13-(3-1) = 11

Round 4
Deamonettes
To hit = (2*11*3/6)+(((2*11*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 12.83
To Wound = 3/6*12.83 = 6.42
Witches Saves = =(6.42*1/6)+((6.42*5/6)*1/6) = 1.96
Remaining Witches 3-(6-2) = 0

### Witch Aelves with Bucklers

30 Witches with bucklers VS 30 Deamonettes.
Round 1
Witches
To hit =((4/6*(30-1))+5/6)*2 = 40.33
To Wound = 3/6*40.33 = 20.17
Deamonette saves = 2/6*20.17 = 6.72
Remaining Deamonettes 30-(20-7)= 17

Deamonettes
To hit =(2*17*3/6)+(((2*17*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 19.83
To Wound = 3/6*19.83 = 8.5
Witches Saves =(2/6*8.5)+((4/6*8.5)*1/6)= 3.78
Remaining Witches 30-(9-4) = 25
Wounds from bucklers = 8.5*1/6 = 1.41
Remaining Deamonettes 17-1 = 16

Round 2
Witches
To hit =((4/6*(25-1))+5/6)*2 = 33.67
To Wound = 3/6*33.67 = 16.84
Deamonette saves = 2/6*16.84 = 5.61
Remaining Deamonettes 16-(17-6) = 5

Deamonettes
To hit =(2*5*3/6)+(((2*5*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 5.83
To Wound = 3/6*5.83 = 2.92
Witches Saves =(2/6*2.92)+((4/6*2.92)*1/6)= 1.3
Remaining Witches 25-(3-1) = 23
Wounds from bucklers = 2.92*1/6 = 0.49
Remaining Deamonettes 5-0 = 5

Round 3
Witches
To hit =((4/6*(23-1))+5/6)*2 = 31
To Wound = 3/6*31 = 15.5
Deamonette saves = 2/6*15.5 = 5.17
Remaining Deamonettes 5-(16-5) = 0

30 Deamonettes VS 30 Witches with Bucklers
Round 1
Deamonettes
To hit = (2*30*3/6)+(((2*30*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 35
To Wound = 3/6*35 = 17.50
Witches Saves =2/6*17.50+((4/6*17.50)*1/6)= 7.78
Remaining Witches 30-(18-8) = 20
Wounds from bucklers = 17.5*1/6 = 2.91
Remaining Deamonettes 30-3 = 27

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(20-1))+5/6)*2 = 27
To Wound = 3/6*27 = 13.5
Deamonette saves = 2/6*13.5 = 4.5
Remaining Deamonettes 27-(14-5) = 18

Round 2
Deamonettes
To hit = (2*18*3/6)+(((2*18*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 21
To Wound = 3/6*21 = 10.5
Witches Saves =(2/6*10.5)+((4/6*10.5)*1/6)= 4.67
Remaining Witches 20-(11-5) = 14
Wounds from bucklers = 10.5*1/6 = 1.75
Remaining Deamonettes 18-2 = 16

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(14-1))+5/6)*2 = 19
To Wound = 3/6*19 = 9.5
Deamonette saves = 2/6*9.5 = 3.17
Remaining Deamonettes 16-(10-3) = 9

Round 3
Deamonettes
To hit = (2*9*3/6)+(((2*9*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 10.5
To Wound = 3/6*10.5 = 5.25
Witches Saves =(2/6*5.25)+((4/6*5.25)*1/6)= 2.33
Remaining Witches 14-(5-2) = 11
Wounds from bucklers = 5.25*1/6 = 0.88
Remaining Deamonettes 9-1 = 8

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(11-1))+5/6)*2 = 15
To Wound = 3/6*15 = 7.5
Deamonette saves = 2/6*7.5 = 2.5
Remaining Deamonettes 8-(8-3) = 3

Round 4
Deamonettes
To hit =(2*3*3/6)+(((2*3*3/6)*2/6)*3/6) = 3.5
To Wound = 3/6*3.5 = 1.75
Witches Saves =(2/6*1.75)+((4/6*1.75)*1/6)= 0.78
Remaining Witches 11-(2-1) = 10
Wounds from bucklers = 1.75*1/6 = 0.29
Remaining Deamonettes 3-0 = 3

Witches
To hit =((4/6*(10-1))+5/6)*2 = 13.67
To Wound = 3/6*13.67 = 6.83
Deamonette saves = 2/6*6.83 = 2.28
Remaining Deamonettes 3-(7-2) = 0

### Conclusions

Tabulated results from the testing: In the table the unit highlighted in bold wins the combat.

What we can see from these results is very interesting. In the first situation where the witch aelves have an extra attack they are able to win combat in just two rounds when they make the first attack on the opposing force. If they were to gain an extra attack from their aura (being within 8 inches of a hero) there could even be a chance of them wiping out the entire Deamonette force with a single round of combat and some lucky rolls.
Meanwhile on the receiving end of attacks the witches with double blades crumble as their native +6 save doesn’t manage to save many of them, even when combined with additional +6 Fanatical Faith saves.

When we come to bucklers though we see a different series of patterns. The most striking is that the witches with bucklers win both situations of when they attack first and when the opposition attacks first. They are slower, however, to kill the Deamonettes when making the initial attack and, whilst they have a higher save, the greater number of attacks hitting them in rounds 2 and 3 take their toll, though the difference isn’t much (26 in the first and 23 in the second).

What this shows is that the most reliable all round choice for Witch Aelves, when faced against a unit with a high number of attacks and a weak save, is the Buckler version of them. However it also shows that if the Witches with Double Daggers makes the first strike then they are able to win the combat in one to two rounds. This would leave them ideally suited to following up those two rounds of combat with further actions; whilst Buckler equipped Witches take one to two turns longer (depending on if they attack first or second). Four turns is a long time in a game, considering that could be 5 turns into the game (assuming the first turn lost to positioning models ready for the charge). That makes the bucklers weaker on the alpha (first) strike, but durable and able to at least tar-pit and hold the line otherwise.
The results also suggest that if a hero was within 8 inches, and thus Witches get one extra attack, the performance would increase quite significantly for both forms of witch. Indeed it would speed up nearly all results by one round, thus speeding up combat and surviving more witches.

This shows that the buckler is must certainly the most all round good and versatile. Able to handle itself well and survive in either attack or defence rolls. The Duel Blades is a trickier beast and superior only when its making the initial attack.
Furthermore keep your heroes close, that +1 attack is going to be a major deciding factor in if your unit sweeps past others and has turns and models left to remain a threat; or gets tangled up for what could be half the game.